David F. Linowes Lectures on Public Policy and Management
The David F. Linowes Lecture on Public Policy and Management is an annual lecture that brings an internationally prominent speaker to campus to discuss social, economic, organizational, and/or political aspects of national problems. This lecture series is supported through the kind generosity of the family of David F. Linowes.
Modeling Thinking: One to Many and Many to One with Prof. Scott E. Page
April 26, 2017 at 3:30 PM in 213 Gregory Hall
Prof. Scott E. Page is Director of the Center for the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan. His research focuses on computational and statistical models of social systems, and the roles of diversity, culture and path dependence in complex systems. In addition to three books, he has published in an array of disciplines including Economics, Political Science, Computer Science, Management, Physics, Public Health, Geography, Urban Planning, Engineering and Public Policy. He also works with schools and corporations including Ford, Chrysler and Google, government agencies including the IMF and Departments of Education and Defense, and non-profits including the League of Black Women and the MacArthur and Kellogg Foundations
Abstract: Models help us understand, explain, predict, and act by simplifying reality or constructing artificial analogues. Consequently, any one model is insufficient to capture the complexity of a social process, and one social question can be described by many flawed models. By applying ensembles of diverse models, we can reach deeper understanding, make better predictions, choose wiser policies, implement better designs, and reveal multiple causal logics. This ‘many to one’ approach can help us find near-truths that exist at what Prof. Richard Levins called "the intersection of independent lies."
Keynote Speaker: Prof. James A. Robinson
(April 18, 2016)
The Power of Forecasting Tournaments to Answer Previously Unanswerable Questions: How Good is Political Judgement? How Good Can it Become?
Keynote Speaker: Prof. Philip E. Tetlock - University of Pennsylvania
(April 13, 2015)
Keynote Speaker: Prof. David Laitin - Stanford University
(April 24, 2014)